Lifestyle predictors of depression and anxiety during COVID-19: a machine learning approach.

INTRODUCTION: Recent research has suggested an increase in the global prevalence of psychiatric symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to assess whether lifestyle behaviors can predict the presence of depression and anxiety in the Brazilian general population, using a model developed in Spain. METHODS: A web survey was conducted during April-May 2020, which included the Short Multidimensional Inventory Lifestyle Evaluation (SMILE) scale, assessing lifestyle behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. Depression and anxiety were examined using the PHQ-2 and the GAD-7, respectively. Elastic net, random forest, and gradient tree boosting were used to develop predictive models. Each technique used a subset of the Spanish sample to train the models, which were then tested internally (vs. the remainder of the Spanish sample) and externally (vs. the full Brazilian sample), evaluating their effectiveness. RESULTS: The study sample included 22,562 individuals (19,069 from Brazil, and 3,493 from Spain). The models developed performed similarly and were equally effective in predicting depression and anxiety in both tests, with internal test AUC-ROC values of 0.85 (depression) and 0.86 (anxiety), and external test AUC-ROC values of 0.85 (depression) and 0.84 (anxiety). Meaning of life was the strongest predictor of depression, while sleep quality was the strongest predictor of anxiety during the COVID-19 epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: Specific lifestyle behaviors during the early COVID-19 epidemic successfully predicted the presence of depression and anxiety in a large Brazilian sample using machine learning models developed on a Spanish sample. Targeted interventions focused on promoting healthier lifestyles are encouraged.

Persistently high hepatitis C rates in haemodialysis patients in Brazil [a systematic review and meta-analysis].

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies assessing HCV infection rates in haemodialysis patients in Brazil (Prospero CRD #42021275068). We included studies on patients under haemodialysis, comprising both convenience samples and exhaustive information from selected services. Patients underwent HCV serological testing with or without confirmation by HCV RNA PCR. Exclusion criteria were the following: absence of primary empirical information and studies without information on their respective settings, study year, accurate infection rates, or full specification of diagnostic tests. Studies with samples ≤ 30 and serial assessments with repeated information were also excluded. Reference databases included PubMed, LILACS, Scopus, and Web of Science for the period 1989-2019. A systematic review was carried out, followed by two independent meta-analyses: (i) studies with data on HCV prevalence and (ii) studies with a confirmatory PCR (i.e., active infection), respectively. A comprehensive set of different methods and procedures were used: forest plots and respective statistics, polynomial regression, meta-regression, subgroup influence, quality assessment, and trim-and-fill analysis. 29 studies and 11,290 individuals were assessed. The average time patients were in haemodialysis varied from 23.5 to 56.3 months. Prevalence of HCV infection was highly heterogeneous, with a pronounced decrease from 1992 to 2001, followed by a plateau and a slight decrease in recent years. The summary measure for HCV prevalence was 34% (95% CI 26-43%) for studies implemented before 2001. For studies implemented after 2001, the corresponding summary measure was 11% (95% CI 8-15%). Estimates for prevalence of active HCV infection were also highly heterogeneous. There was a marked decline from 1996 to 2001, followed by a plateau and a slight increase after 2010. The summary measure for active HCV infection was 19% (95% CI 15-25%) in studies carried out before 2001. For studies implemented after 2001, the corresponding summary measure was 9% (95% CI 6-13%). Heterogeneity was pervasive, but different analyses helped to identify its underlying sources. Besides the year each study was conducted, the findings differed markedly between geographic regions and were heavily influenced by the size of the studies and publication biases. Our systematic review and meta-analysis documented a substantial decline in HCV prevalence among Brazilian haemodialysis patients from 1992 to 2015. CKD should be targeted with specific interventions to prevent HCV infection, and if prevention fails, prompt diagnosis and treatment. Although the goal of HCV elimination by 2030 in Brazil remains elusive, it is necessary to adopt measures to achieve micro-elimination and to launch initiatives towards targeted interventions to curb the spread of HCV in people with CKD, among other high-risk groups. This is of particular concern in the context of a protracted COVID-19 pandemic and a major economic and political crisis.

The cumulative effect of multiple dimensions of lifestyle on risky drinking during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Lifestyle impacts morbidity and mortality worldwide. Herein, we evaluated the association of a multidimensional lifestyle measure and its domains (diet/nutrition, substance use, physical activity, social, stress management, sleep, environmental exposure) with risky drinking. Also, we analyzed the cumulative effect of unhealthy domains in the likelihood of presenting risky drinking. To reach these objectives, data from a web survey conducted in Brazil and Spain was analyzed. The main outcome was risky drinking assessed by the AUDIT-C. Lifestyle was measured using the Short Multidimensional Inventory Lifestyle Evaluation (SMILE). Fixed logistic models were used to evaluate associations between lifestyle and risky drinking. Between April and May 2020, 22,785 individuals answered the survey. The prevalence of risky drinking was 45.6% in Brazil and 30.8% in Spain. The SMILE score was lower (unhealthier lifestyle) among at-risk drinkers. Worse scores on Diet, Substance use, Stress management and Environment were associated with an increased likelihood of risky drinking. The higher the number of unhealthy domains, the higher the likelihood of presenting risky drinking: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for risky drinking was 1.15 (IC95% 0.98-1.35) and 23.42 (IC95% 3.08-178.02) for those presenting worse lifestyle in 1 and 5 domains, respectively. Finally, interactions suggest that improvement in lifestyle domains would have a larger effect in Spain than in Brazil. Our results suggest that future interventions aiming at reducing Risky drinking may benefit from strategies targeting multiple domains of lifestyle.

The politics of COVID-19 vaccination in middle-income countries: Lessons from Brazil.

As the world struggles to meet the challenges of vaccination against COVID-19, more attention needs to be paid to issues faced by countries at different income levels. Middle-income countries (MICs) typically lack the resources and regulatory capacities to pursue strategies that wealthier countries do, but they also face different sets of challenges and opportunities than low-income countries (LICs). We focus on three dimensions of vaccination: procurement and production; regulation of marketing registration; and distribution and uptake. For each dimension we show the distinct challenges and opportunities faced by MICs. We illustrate these challenges and opportunities with the case of Brazil, showing how each dimension has been affected by intense political conflicts. Brazil's procurement and production strategy, which builds on a long trajectory of local production and technology transfer, has been riddled by conflicts between the national government and state governments. The regulatory approval process, based around one of Latin America's most highly-regarded regulatory authorities, has also been subject to acute inter- and intra-governmental conflicts. And with regard to distribution and uptake, in the face of high uncertainty, even with a solid health infrastructure, Brazil encounters difficulties in promoting vaccine delivery. The research also reveals the importance of coordination among these dimensions, in Brazil and beyond. Pandemic preparedness and response must include sharing knowledge of how to produce vaccines and recognition of the crucial linkages between procurement, regulation, delivery, and uptake that are necessary for ensuring access to these products.

Depression, Anxiety, and Lifestyle Among Essential Workers: A Web Survey From Brazil and Spain During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Essential workers have been shown to present a higher prevalence of positive screenings for anxiety and depression during the COVID-19 pandemic. Individuals from countries with socioeconomic inequalities may be at increased risk for mental health disorders. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the prevalence and predictors of depression, anxiety, and their comorbidity among essential workers in Brazil and Spain during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A web survey was conducted between April and May 2020 in both countries. The main outcome was a positive screening for depression only, anxiety only, or both. Lifestyle was measured using a lifestyle multidimensional scale adapted for the COVID-19 pandemic (Short Multidimensional Inventory Lifestyle Evaluation-Confinement). A multinomial logistic regression model was performed to evaluate the factors associated with depression, anxiety, and the presence of both conditions. RESULTS: From the 22,786 individuals included in the web survey, 3745 self-reported to be essential workers. Overall, 8.3% (n=311), 11.6% (n=434), and 27.4% (n=1027) presented positive screenings for depression, anxiety, and both, respectively. After adjusting for confounding factors, the multinomial model showed that an unhealthy lifestyle increased the likelihood of depression (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 4.00, 95% CI 2.72-5.87), anxiety (AOR 2.39, 95% CI 1.80-3.20), and both anxiety and depression (AOR 8.30, 95% CI 5.90-11.7). Living in Brazil was associated with increased odds of depression (AOR 2.89, 95% CI 2.07-4.06), anxiety (AOR 2.81, 95%CI 2.11-3.74), and both conditions (AOR 5.99, 95% CI 4.53-7.91). CONCLUSIONS: Interventions addressing lifestyle may be useful in dealing with symptoms of common mental disorders during the strain imposed among essential workers by the COVID-19 pandemic. Essential workers who live in middle-income countries with higher rates of inequality may face additional challenges. Ensuring equitable treatment and support may be an important challenge ahead, considering the possible syndemic effect of the social determinants of health.